MONDAY,
      NOVEMBER
      20,
     
     
      8:30AM
      EST:
     
    
   
   
    
     
      It
      is
      a
      tough
      way
      to
      start
      a
     
     
      day
      being
      late
      for
      everything.
      I’m
     
     
      presently
      23000
      feet
      up
      enjoying
     
     
      coffee
      on
      a
      plane
      I
      almost
      missed
     
     
      because
      of
      a
      shuttle
      I
      did
      miss.
      And
     
     
      that
      is
      what
      I
      want
      to
      write
      about
     
     
      today...
      missed
      opportunities.
      The
     
     
      election
      is
      seven
      days
      away
      and
      I
     
     
      have
      to
      put
      my
      spin
      on
      it.
      But
     
     
      through
      23
      straight
      days
      of
      rain,
      I
     
     
      was
      unable
      to
      see
      through
      the
      thick
     
     
      fog
      that
      enveloped
      the
      Island
      from
     
     
      the
      rest
      of
      the
      country.
      Up
      here,
      the
     
     
      view
      isn’t
      much
      better
      but
      I
      can
     
     
      almost
      feel
      the
      karma
      below
      me.
     
     
      So
      without
      further
      adieu...
     
    
   
   
    
     
      THE
      WINNER
      AND...
     
    
   
   
    
     
      Still
      undisputed
      ruler
      of
      Canada
     
     
      will
      be
      Liberal
      Jean
      Chretien.
      This
     
     
      is
      not
      easy
      to
      write
      right
      now
      when
     
     
      almost
      one
      in
      five
      voters
      is
      unde-
     
     
      cided.
      Barring
      some
      serious
      event
     
     
      that
      galvanizes
      this
      substantial
      vot-
     
     
      ing
      block
      to
      go
      one
      way
      or
      another,
     
     
      most
      will
      vote
      in
      a
      divided
      fashion
     
     
      that
      will
      reflect
      how
      most
     
     
      Canadians
      will
      vote
      anyway.
     
    

    
     
      But
      here
      in
      Canada,
      elec-
     
     
      tions
      operate
      a
      little
      differently
     
     
      than
      in
      the
      US.
      Our
      “electoral
      col-
     
     
      lege”
      is
      winning
      ridings
      not
      popu-
     
     
      lar
      votes
      and
      that
      is
      why
      I
      can
      pro-
     
     
      vide
      a
      reasoned
      prediction.
      There
     
     
      are
      301
      ridings
      in
      Canada
      contest-
     
     
      ed
      by
      at
      least
      five
      parties
      every-
     
     
      where
      (fringe
      or
      mainstream).
     
    
   
   
    
     
       
     
    
   
   
    
     
      Hollywood
     
    
   
   
    
     
       
     
    
   
   
    
     
      Music
     
    
   
   
    
     
      Whatever
      candidate
      wins
      the
      most
     
     
      votes
      in
      a
      riding
      wins
      the
      seat.
      If
     
     
      one
      party
      attains
      151
      seats
      then
     
     
      they
      can
      form
      a
      majority
      govern-
     
     
      ment.
      If
      not,
      then
      a
      combination
      of
     
     
      parties
      with
      at
      least
      151
      seats
     
     
      between
      them
      can
      work
      together
      to
     
     
      form
      a
      minority
      government.
      But
     
     
      the
      numbers
      indicate
      that
      this
      is
      an
     
     
      unlikely
      scenario.
     
    

    
     
      The
      three
      backrunners
      are
     
     
      the
      New
      Democratic
      Party
      (NDP)
     
     
      led
      by
      Alexa
      McDonough,
      the
     
     
      Progressive
      Conservatives
      (Tories)
     
     
      led
      by
      Joe
      Clark,
      and
      the
      Bloc
     
     
      Quebecois
      led
      by
      Gilles
      Duceppe.
     
     
      Each
      has
      a
      different
      story
      in
      this
     
     
      election
      with
      varying
      degrees
      of
     
     
      sadness.
     
    

    
     
      The
      NDP
      has
      19
      members
     
     
      presently
      and
      that
      number
      should
     
     
      decrease.
      They
      have
      bastions
      of
     
     
      support
      in
      the
      Maritimes
      (seven
     
     
      seats),
       Manitoba/Saskatchewan
     
     
      (eight
      seats),
      and
      a
      handful
      in
      BC.
     
     
      They
      are
      vulnerable
      because
      their
     
     
      Maritime
      support
      (like
      the
      Tories)
     
     
      was
      based
      primarily
      on
      dissatisfac-
     
     
      tion
      with
      Liberal
      reforms
      to
     
     
      Employment
      Insurance
      back
      in
     
     
      1997
      which
      took
      money
      out
      of
     
     
      peoples
      pockets.
      This
      irritation
      has
     
     
      healed
      with
      time
      and
      a
      repeal.
     
     
      Times
      are
      tough
      in
      some
      parts
      of
     
     
      Atlantic
      Canada
      right
      now
      and
      the
     
     
      shrewd
      voters
      that
      they
      are,
      they
     
     
      know
      that
      they
      could
      benefit
      more
     
     
      from
      being
      onside
      government
     
     
      rather
      than
      off.
      So
      enough
      should
     
     
      come
      back
      to
      the
      Liberal
      fold
      to
     
     
      decrease
      members
      for
      this
      party.
     
    
   
   
    
     
      Fashion
     
    
   
   
    
     
      AAU
      Aaeh’say
      Mmeorelag
     
    
   
   
    
     
      Politics:
      1200
      Words
      of
      Unadulterated
      Truths
     
    
   
   
    
     
      The
      NDP’s
      other
      problem
     
     
      is
      in
      BC
      where
      they
      are
      vulnerable
     
     
      because
      their
      provincial
      namesakes
     
     
      are
      corrupt
      and
      a
      few
      months
      away
     
     
      from
      getting
      thrown
      out
      of
      office.
     
     
      This
      too
      should
      translate
      into
     
     
      Liberal
      gains
      in
      the
      Lower
     
     
      Mainland.
     
    

    
     
      Joe
      Clark
      has
      done
      a
      superb
     
     
      job
      this
      election
      but
      is
      too
      far
      back
     
     
      to
      make
      a
      run.
      His
      MP’s
      started
      to
     
     
      melt
      away
      when
      Chretien
      came
      a
     
     
      calling
      and
      he
      subsequently
      lost
     
     
      four
      out
      of
      five
      Quebec
      MP’s
      in
     
     
      this
      way.
      At
      the
     
     
      time
      of
      dissolu-
     
     
      tion,
      the
      Tories
     
     
      had
      only
      15
      seats
     
     
      left.
      Joe
      will
     
     
      have
      a
      tough
      go
     
     
      in
      his
      own
      riding
     
     
      of
      Calgary
     
     
      Center.
      I
      think,
     
     
      in
      ..
      the:
      ..end,
     
     
      Calgarians
      will
     
     
      choose
      a
      party
     
     
      leader
      over
      an
     
     
      opposition
      back-
     
     
      bencher.
      This
     
     
      coupled
      with
      2
     
     
      Liberal
      cabinet
     
     
      ministers
      in
      the
     
     
      last
      bastion
      of
     
     
      the
      left
      left
      in
     
     
      Edmonton
      will
     
     
      be
      Alberta’s
     
     
      three
      non
     
     
      Alliance
      MP’s.
     
    

    
     
      Joe
      has
     
     
      no
      hope
      of
      elect-
     
     
      ing
      anyone
      in
     
    
   
   
    
     
      Quebec.
      Prospects
      are
      thin
      out
     
     
      west
      and
      in
      Ontario
      which
      leaves
      |
     
     
      the
      Maritimes
      but
      most
      of
      that
      sup-
     
     
      port
      will
      melt
      the
      Liberals
      way.
     
     
      Frankly,
      I
      have
      a
      hard
      time
      identi-
     
     
      fying
      the
      12
      seats
      Clark
      needs
      to
     
    
   
   
    
     
      ‘maintain
      party
      status
      in
      the
      House,
     
    
   
   
    
     
      which
      gives
      them
      access
      to
      funds
     
     
      and
      staff.
     
    

    
     
      With
      support
      for
      sovereign-
     
     
      ty
      locked
      in
      at
      40%,
      the
      Bloc
      will
     
     
      again
      send
      at
      least
      40
      members
      to
     
     
      Ottawa
      (they
      had
      44
      members
     
     
      when
      the
      election
      was
      called).
      But
     
    
   
   
    
     
         
     
     
       
     
     
        
     
     
       
     
     
        
     
     
        
     
     
        
     
     
       
     
     
       
     
     
        
     
     
       
     
     
       
     
     
       
     
     
       
     
     
       
     
     
       
     
     
        
     
     
       
     
     
        
     
     
       
     
     
       
     
     
       
     
     
       
     
     
       
     
     
       
     
     
        
     
     
       
     
     
       
     
     
       
     
     
       
     
     
       
     
     
       
     
     
        
     
     
       
     
    
   
   
    
     
       
     
    
   
   
    
     
        
     
    
   
   
    
     
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